This form (Figure 1) looks very complex on first sight but after a while it is addictive! The stagger chart can be used to forecast sales, headcount, costs, profits - or any number set where you have an annual target, broken down by months and quarters, where close tracking of information is required.

Figure 1: The Stagger Chart

The stagger chart provides:

- Accuracy of forecast over a six-month period
- Measurement of monthly actual versus target
- Measurement of actual YTD versus target YTD
- Prediction of yearly outcome - available from month six

The reader will notice that each month he/she is required to enter the forecast values for the next months, and that this causes the staggered effect. In January it would be reasonable to expect our accuracy for January to be pretty good (we may have a different problem if the current month is difficult to estimate) whereas our knowledge of June's business may well be preliminary.

The important measurement is: "Does forecast accuracy improve as we get closer?" Clearly, this report can be as unpopular with account managers (reps) as it is popular with sales management. The stagger chart isn't perfect but as a tool for instantly displaying the health of a business, I haven't come across anything better. The main drawback is that producing stagger charts with Microsoft Excel is extremely time-consuming, particularly in the second half of the year when two charts need to be maintained, and each month the charts need to have the new data entries added.

Any forecast system I use must support separate charts for Bookings and Revenues, roll-up hierarchical data (so that a team manager automatically gets a team stagger chart) and cater for year-ends by displaying up to 18 months of forecast data. In addition, the user must be able to click on a monthly total and be shown, via a hyperlink, the deals that make up the number being displayed.